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TL Economic Intelligence Wherever the evidence leads.

Research and analysis

Research and commentary from TL Economic Intelligence, including regular notes built on our data products.

  1. Long-form

    Remove UK-bound metals and Canada's record low export concentration disappears ↗

    The driver is growth outside the US: non-US exports rose $44.3B (+35.3%) from January to August, against +2.5% to the US.

    October 8, 2026 · on Substack

  2. HHI Monitor · August 2026

    Canada's export concentration holds at a record low as August's monthly reading rebounds

    The monthly HHI rose to 0.51 in August, but the 12-month moving average stayed at a record low. The United Kingdom still accounts for more than half of the growth in non-US exports.

    October 6, 2026

  3. HHI Monitor · July 2026

    Canada's export concentration hits a record low, and one market carries the gains

    Exports to the United States held flat while exports elsewhere grew by a third. More than half of that growth went to the United Kingdom.

    September 27, 2026

  4. Long-form

    Tracking Canada's Export Diversification ↗

    Despite exporting goods and services to over 200 countries and territories, Canada’s export portfolio behaves as though it trades with just two equally sized partners. This paradox is captured by Statistics Canada’s export market concentration index, a measure of export dependence on a few trading partners. The index ranges from 0 (perfect diversification) to 1 (absolute dependence on a single partner).

    May 27, 2026 · on Substack